The Washington Nationals have, fairly surprisingly even as July approaches, given their fans a reason to check the standings every morning. That glance Tuesday revealed a stinging loss in San Diego the previous night — up three runs in the 10th, they somehow fell, 7-6 — that prevented the Nats from leapfrogging the Padres into the final National League wild-card position.
The conclusion: Trade Hunter Harvey! Now!
That’s not a knee-jerk reaction to Harvey’s blown save Monday night. It’s an assessment of where the Nationals are as we approach one month before baseball’s trade deadline — in the playoff picture for the moment but with more promising (and realistic) hopes beyond.
Put the standings aside for a second, and think about a list of Nationals who make this team watchable and provide hope for the future. CJ Abrams looks like he’ll be an all-star shortstop, if not this year, then soon. MacKenzie Gore has front-of-the-rotation stuff that he’s harnessing more consistently. Josiah Gray was an all-star a year ago and could return to form when he comes back from the injured list. Lane Thomas is a fun outfielder with a combination of power and speed who could produce 20-plus homers and 20-plus steals a season for years to come.
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And at some point, James Wood — still raking at Class AAA Rochester after missing nearly four weeks with a hamstring strain — will join them.
What do those players have in common? They all arrived in Washington via trade-deadline deals — Abrams, Gore and Wood in the 2022 blockbuster for Juan Soto; Gray (and struggling starting catcher Keibert Ruiz) in the 2021 franchise-changer for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner; and Thomas in what appeared to be a throwaway for declining, about-to-retire starter Jon Lester in 2021 as well.
As applied to 2024, that Thomas deal is instructive. We’ll get to why shortly. But first, back to the standings.
Through Monday’s games, the Nats (38-40) stood just 1½ games behind the Padres for that third and final NL wild-card spot in what is a logjam of a race as we get to the midway point of the season. Indeed, nine teams — from the Cardinals at three games above .500 to the Cubs and Giants at five games below — would appear to have a reasonable shot at contending for the league’s last two postseason berths. (The Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers have comfortable division leads, and the Braves are well on top of the wild-card heap.)
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In that kind of mix, it’s hard for someone such as Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo to hang out the “open for business” sign that was so obviously required back when he made the painful-but-necessary moves that sent Scherzer, Turner and Soto out of town. These Nats aren’t starting a rebuild. They’re mid-rebuild, and the standings would be an indication that they’re slightly ahead of schedule.
But the Nats’ decisions at this deadline shouldn’t be based on the idea they’re slightly ahead of schedule. They should be based on the more realistic schedule, which is that they head into this winter with the combination of a young, talented roster and financial flexibility that makes truly contending in 2025 a distinct possibility.
Yes, the standings say they’re in it. The reality, though, is that some overperformance — admirable, for sure, yet likely to correct itself — has slightly inflated their results. FanGraphs, for instance, has their playoff odds at just 3 percent, putting them ahead of only Colorado and Miami in the NL.
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Given all that, moving left fielder Jesse Winker (seventh in the NL in on-base percentage) and reliever Dylan Floro (10th in ERA among NL relievers with at least 20 innings) should seem obvious because they’re on expiring deals. They were signed to be flipped at the deadline. Please flip them.
Still, the Nationals’ most valuable trade commodities would be Thomas, Harvey and fellow hard-throwing reliever Kyle Finnegan. None of those players can be a free agent until after the 2025 season. Each could bring a more attractive prospect or two in return.
Wait: Trade three of this team’s best players — when a playoff spot is within reach? That can be hard for a general manager to explain to both a fan base and a clubhouse. If you’re in the race, shouldn’t you add, not subtract?
Not in every case. Take the Baltimore Orioles. There’s no franchise in baseball it would be more fun to be a fan of at the moment. Yes, their pitching staff is banged up. Sure, they might not catch the Yankees in the American League East. But their roster is loaded with young, affordable talent, and there’s more on the way — players who will either help the Orioles on the field or help General Manager Mike Elias trade for the pieces he needs to plug holes. They are built for 2024 — and for years to come, too.
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Two summers ago, the Orioles approached the trade deadline in a position similar to the current Nats — on the fringes of the race but with a higher probability of fading down the stretch than roaring into October as a true contender. So the day before the deadline, Elias swallowed hard and traded first baseman Trey Mancini, a franchise pillar, and all-star closer Jorge López. The return: six players, two of whom are helping the current major league club and three more among the team’s deep stable of prospects, according to MLB.com.
When Elias made the deals, the Orioles were on the road. He flew in for the last of three games in Texas because he had some explaining to do — to his clubhouse and his fan base.
“This is not something, obviously, where we’re putting all of our chips and all this work that we’ve been doing around the organization for the past three and a half to four years into the second half of 2022,” Elias told reporters that day. “This is a decade-long window that I think is opening up. … The most important thing to us is we prioritize this long window that we feel is ahead of us among all other considerations.”
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In the moment, it was hard. Two years later, it seems smart.
There’s a world in which Rizzo is making a similar speech following the July 30 deadline. He could, too, point out that the core of the roster that could contend as soon as 2025 was built on trades. He could point out that he once turned all-star closer Matt Capps into Wilson Ramos, who became the team’s starting catcher for six years. He could point out that he turned Lester into Thomas. He could point out that to be buyers at deadlines in the future, the Nats need to continue to restock a system that’s not as flush as it could be.
There’s value to be had at the deadline, not for 2024 but beyond. The Nats should seek it. It’s not imperative that they move Harvey, who had held opponents to a .652 OPS and posted a 2.84 ERA before Monday’s meltdown. It’s not required that they deal Finnegan, whose 22 saves rank third in baseball, or Thomas, who had 3.1 wins above replacement last season, according to FanGraphs.
But to fling open that long window even further, it would be smart. The standings may momentarily say the Nats are ahead of schedule. Don’t look at them. The trade deadline is still more than a month away. Keep the blinders on. Swallow hard. The chips should go in next summer, not this one.
